TodaysAction's Blog

The "V" Angle

November 22, 2009 by TodaysAction

Here is useful method when not familiar with a track's tendencies.

Every trainer in the business knows that the success of the individual horse depends to a great extent upon its current physical condition than it does upon any other single factor. Therefore, the trainer who backs his own horse takes every precaution to make sure his horse is razor sharp.

The betting trainer is interested in price. Thus, he is faced with the problem of determining the fitness of his horse without revealing its true state of condition to the betting public.

These chaps want to out-smart the betting public, and they develop many little devices which serve to insure them a good price on their horse on the right day.

A careful study of the past performance charts reveals that quite a number of the betting gentry use a little device which we call the "V-Angle" race. This type of race differs from the regular race in that the angle deals only with the lengths off the leader at the three final calls. That is, lengths off the leader at the pre-stretch, stretch, and finish calls.

The name "V-Angle" race was adopted because the length calls would actually form a "V" if placed on a graph chart. For example, take the three following length calls:
Pre-stretch Stretch Finish
74 56 44

Here the horse showed a good effort in that it was within four lengths of the leader at the pre-stretch call. Then it was given a bit of a breather, losing two lengths, after which it came on again to gain two lengths in the last furlong. So if placed on a graph, the beaten-length calls would form a "V" as follows:
4 4
6

Remember, the horse is not trying to win; it is only being tested for condition. The important point is that when the conditioner tested his horse’s fitness, the horse was able to be within four lengths of the leader at the pre-stretch, drop back a bit in lengths for the stretch call, and then come on again in the final furlong. A fundamental aspect of this angle is to make sure that the number of lengths or fractions thereof were greater at the stretch call than they were at either the pre-stretch call or at the finish.

In the vast majority of races the "V-Angle" horse did not pick up poundage today over that which is carried in its last start. In many instances, the horse got anywhere from one to four pounds off today. Therefore, we should include the weight factor when making the selections.

Another point of importance has to do with separating two contenders. Past experience reveals that the horse that made the greatest gain in the stretch run was usually the better choice of the two.

Personally, we (experienced punters) are in favor of backing the "V" horse only when one horse in the field qualifies.

Price is a strong factor, so we will not play any horse that is less than 9-1 on the tote board.

In addition to demanding price, we make it a rule not to consider any horse as a contender on this angle that did not finish fourth or worse last start. Our reasoning in this matter is as follows:

The horse was being tested for condition, therefore it was not expected to finish among the first three. Second, in those instances where the horse won or finished a close second or third the price next start was no incentive to a betting trainer. Third, in many instances where the horse finished in the money it might have just run its best race.

Now, one final point: remember that the date of the test "V-race" is important because the race was run to determine the condition of the horse. The vast majority of winners was found among the qualified plays that had started within the past 15 days.

Now let’s review the rules of play:

1. Horse must have started within the past 15 days.

2. In that race, horse must have been within four lengths of the leader at the pre-stretch call, lost lengths at the stretch call and gained lengths at the finish.

3. The horse must not be picking up weight from its previous race.

4. Qualified horse must be 9-1 or more on the tote board.

5. If there are two qualified horses in a race at 9-1 or more, play both.

6. If there are two qualified horse in a race and one is less than 9-1 treat it as a non-qualifier and play the one that is 9-1 or more.

7. If there are more than two qualified horses in a race, pass the race regardless of their closing tote odds.

8. There is no play on any horse that finished closer than fourth in its most recent race.

Sunshine and flowers was a perfect qualifier in the fifth race at Golden Gate on December 30, 1998. She had raced within 11 days (Rule 1), was 3 1/4 lengths off the leader at the pre-stretch call, lost 1 1/4 lengths between the pre-stretch and stretch calls and gained one length between the stretch call and the wire.

The only other starter at 9/1 or more who had raced within 15 days could not meet the requirements of Rule 2. Sunshine and flowers paid $33.60 to win, a nice overlay.

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Breeder's Cup, Part III

November 6, 2009 by TodaysAction

In the third installment of the series, today I go over the Sprint. The Grade I 6 furlong race has a purse of $2,000,000 that will be run Saturday, November 7, 2009. Horses are listed according to post position from the rail outward.

Zensational: The first few things I noticed about this one were that public has always supported this three year old (favorite), the traditional prep races were used in getting ready for Saturday’s event and that there’s a whole lot of early speed that still finishes strong (5 wins with the last three all being Grade I races). Baffert has this one right on the edge of obtaining, dare I say Kona Gold, greatness. Impressive to say the least. Serious player.

Cost of Freedom: Primarily a CA horse, this six year old gelding has this races’ history going against him. Races are not won on history nor a piece of paper but on the track and two methods I use for selecting winners has this one coming out top. Look closer at the last prep race’s numbers and it appears the race was used as a learning tool. It’s a large enough step to go from a 112k race to a Grade I, in one step, let alone “push” the horse early (21.3 for the opening quarter) and then see this one be out finished because of it. Saddler is winning at an above average clip of 22% this meet and Baze’s 20% isn’t anything to sneeze at. To me, this signals they’re sitting on one with the question looming will he fire Saturday? I’ll use this one for my long-shot of the race.

Fattal Blue: Last year’s runner-up for this race, also held at Santa Anita, enters the race off a Grade III win against a weak field. That’s not a bad thing as it reminds the horse to win after a six week lay-off but it tells me the connections weren’t certain this time around. Reports say the workouts have gone well but, to me, there are to many strikes against this one from winning but can see a minor share of the purse being obtained.

Crown of Thorns: On paper, I see very few reasons to even consider this one but recall Mendella having the same type of situation a few years back. If his horse’s are performing well earlier I might toss a few bones on this one’s nose, if not will use to fill out exotic tickets.

Gayego: The off the lead tactics used might be enough to obtain at least a minor share. I don’t like the fact that only a pair of races were run this year in America and only four for the year. Adding to it, the workouts leading up to Saturday’s race haven’t been good, let alone average. I could be wrong but I’m playing against this one winning.

Dancing in Silks: Enters the race on a three win win streak but none of them were Grade III or higher and has never won a Graded race. What makes the connections think “now” the horse is ready to go from the 100k level to a $2,000,000 race in one step? Minor share at best.

Join in the Dance: While the horse continues to improve from the ‘09 Kentucky Derby, there still is no 100+ Beyer in this one portfolio. The early turn of foot might help for a brief while but the reality check should kick in long before the pace call. Most times I’m willing to toss away a ticket buy playing bombs to win in exotics but would be hard pressed to do that come Saturday - unless I were to see something in the paddock and or post parade. Would add value to to exotic tickets.

Capt. Candyman Can: There is enough back class to see why the connections would want to attempt this race (9 of the 11 races have been Grade III’s or better). The question I have is, what makes you think you can win on the left coast? Were Saturday’s race to be held in the New York circuit, I would be able to see why people would back this one - it’s not and I won’t at least for the win. Minor share at best.

Fleeting Spirit (IRE): Oh goodie a Euro horse coming to America who has never raced on dirt thinks they will win. Sorry to burst your bubble but you should be in the turf sprint where you’d have a legitimate chance of winning. Not for me, no thank you, I’ll pass but will use to fill in my exotic tickets.

As with all BC races, a person can make a case for and or against any horse. Those are my thoughts heading into the race. My final tickets are unknown at this time since I use the visuals from the paddock and post parade to help make my final selections. Good luck with your wagers for this race.

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Breeder's Cup, Part II

November 5, 2009 by TodaysAction

Today I give you my thoughts on the Ladies Classic race which use to be called the Distaff. This race is only for Fillies and Mares three years old and upward were the winning connections get 60% of the $2,000,000 purse ($1,200,000) - not a bad payday is it? The horses are listed in post position order (from the rail outward).

Careless Jewel: Comes into the race on a five win streak which sounds impressive but when you look at what the races were, in terms of class, it’s not as incredable as it seems. Don’t get me wrong win that many in a row is very good but when you’re going against the best the world has to offer on Friday do you really think winning a 65k Maiden Special Weight or a 71k Allowance race will help the cause? The last three wins were two Grade 2's and a Grade 1 which shows the ability this one has. In those three races, she was forwardly placed, settled in and then accellorated . A major player but don’t think this one will win.

Life Is Sweet: One of the first things I notice about this one is the level of competition this one has faced this year - all Grade1's and 2's but has not won in over six (6) months. This comes in part from the style of how the horse races. When one looks at the past perfomances, they should take note that this filly does not break quickly opting to come from mid-pack and make a charging type move towards the end. The problem with those who use this tactic often come up short for the win and therefore I’d use her as an under in my exotic tickets but will have a ticket with her on top (win) just in case Alex Solis is able to get her placed forward enough and rate.

Mushka: This is clearly an East coast filly never having gone west of Chicago but has taken a more traditional prep route to get to a final key prep race in which she ended up winning due to Proviso’s interference. This gal has had only two races in which she wasn’t in the mix this past year and one of them was because she didn’t take to the surface. Which leads me back to the first item I mentioned about her - if she takes to the surface you’ll have a nice double digit winner but if she doesn’t I can’t see her making the board.

Lethal Heat: Those who play the CA circuit should be familiar with this gal as all sixteen (16) races have been in state - a state specialist if you will. Does the name Lemon Drop Kid ring a bell with his success in the New York circuit a few years back? I can see the same thing happening here all over again. This is my long shot play of the race.

Proviso (GB): Euro bounce and Bobby Franklin don’t make a good combination on BC days. In my opinion, the connections should have taken the steps to enter the Filly & Mare Turf race, as they would have a better chance of winning that than this one. Minor share at best.

Cocoa Beach (CHI): Last year’s runner up for this race is back for round two. There’s something to be said for those who have BC experience to draw upon. While the same path wasn’t choosen for this year, the final prep race did have a valid excuse (bobbled start) but this mare still finished third and according to most reports has been working out extremely well. Unless she washes out prior to entering the starting gate, will be placed on all my tickets involved with this race.

Music Note: With previous BC experience and a win in a key prep race make it easy to see why the public will be all over this one. The work-out show this horse is fit and ready. Major player

Rainbow View: Look for the Euro bounce from this one Friday. I question the Woodbine prep the connections used and when this gal gave up the lead at the eigth pole. I get that race was further but the level of competition won’t be that soft Friday and can only make a case to use for a minor share.

As with all BC races, a person can make a case for and or against any horse. Those are my thoughts heading into the race. My final tickets are unknown at this time since I use the visuals from the paddock and post parade to help make my final selections. Good luck with your wagers for this race.

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Breeder's Cup 2009, Part I

November 4, 2009 by TodaysAction

Breeder’s Cup 2009 is just a few away. For those who don’t follow horse racing, it is the Super Bowl of horse racing spread over two days. This years event takes place at Sanata Anita (CA) on the 6th and 7th this month. Here are my thoughts on Friday’s first BC race.

Breeder’s Cup Marathon
Black Astor: Has never been in a G1 race and outside of his last three races, all G2's, has not raced above the 86k level winning July 26, 2008 in a 62k OC race. The workouts have been good but I can not see this one winning.

Cloudy’s Knight: Has won last two races, both Grade3's, has a G1 win, triple digit Beyer’s previously and appears to still be cycling up. Average workouts. Worth a second look depending on the draw.

Eldaafer: Remove the last race from the equation and you see the horse has been competitive at every level. It looks like this is the race the connections were aiming for and could be dangerous.

Father Time (GB): The first thing I noticed about this one is the he’s never finished off the board and started at the 100k mark and kept going upward. As this colt continues to stretch out one can see the consistent improvement . The flip side is his last race was his “worst” but it was his first crack at a Group One race and just one-sixteenth of a mile short of Friday’s race. Include in your tickets.

Gangbuster: Twice has raced the distance or further which tells you, he’s capable of going the distance but has not faced a field like this and has never been in any G2's or G1's and doesn’t have a win in the G3 races he was in. Nothing special in the workouts. Might be able to achieve a minor share.

Man of Iron: Trained by Aidan O’Brien with Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat) breeding and the influence of Deputy Minister. All indications point to a strong solid effort and can’t see why a top three finish shouldn’t occur.

Mastery: Another Euro horse very capable of winning the race never finishing off the board and still shows room to improve. Scarey thought, isn’t it? The betting public will be all over this one.

Muhannak (IRE): Won last year’s race and used a similar pattern to here again and it doesn’t hurt having a Sire with previous BC experience. Might not be able to pull off the double but definately worth playing in exotics.

Nite Light: Were this year to be held in the New York Racing Circuit, there is little doubt this would be one of my top three choices for the race but it’s not and as such gets down graded. Never having been west of Chicago could be this one’s down fall not to mention not even an attempt at a Grade I race. One does have to admire the connections commitment to Court for the race. Minor share at best.

On Fire: A couple things jumped out at me while glancing at this 5 year olds past performances. One, no Graded Stakes races and two, the gelding has races at least 8 panels in all but his maiden race. A hard knocking horse that is over matched and can’t see being in the money without a whole lot of luck.

Sir Dave: This horse has always hit the board less the last race in which their was an injury. What that tells me is the connections are in tune with the horse’s abilities. In his second start, he finished fourth in a 400k race coming off a 28k MSW win at Calder - that’s one huge jump and tells me, those involved knew this horse was something special as it did not matter who was training him. If he goes to post, this will be the long-shot of the race for myself.

As with all BC races, a person can make a case for and or against any horse. Those are my thoughts heading into the race. My final tickets are unknown at this time since I use the visuals from the paddock and post parade to help make my final selections. Good luck with your wagers for this race.

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